西安财经大学学报

2025年，美国再次发起大规模关税战，全球经济秩序进入“制度不确定性”时代，给我国金融体系带来了一系列挑战。通过梳理2018-2025年美国对中国关税政策演化特征，指出“关税湍流”下本轮关税战具有政策非规则化、节奏极端化与波动突发性、市场预期与政策方向不匹配、全球传导路径的非线性与交叉性强化等特征，导致中国金融系统面临银行风险积聚、融资功能受阻、货币政策操作空间受限，跨境监管成本上升等潜在冲击。通过引入“制度确定性”分析框架，剖析中国制度确定性变迁的逻辑和框架，并提出制度模型的三个层次：一是构建预期管理机制及强化跨部门协同联动的基础层；二是着重应用逆周期政策集成工具、充分发挥数字人民币功能以及不断优化监管沙箱机制的工具层；三是针对现行制度开展容忍度测试，推动风险回溯系统构建以强化制度适应性和修复效能的反馈层。最后，从确立中长期制度支撑体系、构建战略性政策工具库、推动区域复制路径扩散、提升国际金融话语权、推进金融治理能力现代化、建立数据驱动的制度支撑平台等六个方面提出对策建议。同时指出在全球不确定性成为常态的背景下，我国金融制度应从“应激反应型治理”向“结构稳态型制度体系”转型，提升政策的持续输出、跨周期调节能力以及国际制度的影响力，以为未来可能的更高强度的冲击提供稳定的制度保障。

In 2025,the United States launched a large-scale tariff war again, and the global economic order entered the era of “institutional uncertainty, ” which brought a series of challenges to China's financial system.By reviewing the evolution characteristics of the US tariff policies towards China from 2018 to 2025,this paper points out that the current round of tariff war under the tariff turbulence has the characteristics of policy irregularity, intensifying frequency and sudden fluctuations, mismatch between market expectations and policy directions, and enhanced nonlinearity and cross-interference of global transmission channels, which cause significant shocks to China's financial system, including accumulated bank risks, impaired financing functions, constrained monetary policy operational space, and rising cross-border regulatory costs.By introducing the analytical framework of “institutional certainty, ” this paper analyzes the logic and framework of China's institutional certainty change and puts forward three layers of institutional model: first, the basic layer that constructs expectation management mechanisms and strengthens cross-departmental coordination and linkage; second, the tool layer that emphasizes the integrated application of counter-cyclical policy instruments, gives full play to the function of digital RMB,and continuously optimizes regulatory sandbox mechanisms; third, the feedback layer that carries out tolerance tests for the current system and promote the construction of risk back-tracking systems to strengthen system adaptability and recovery efficiency.Finally, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from six aspects: establishing a medium-and long-term institutional support system, building a repository of strategic policy tools, promoting the diffusion of regional replication paths, enhancing the voice in international finance, modernizing financial governance capabilities, and establishing a data-driven institutional support platform.At the same time, it points out that against the background of global uncertainty becoming the norm, China's financial system should transform from “stress-responsive governance” to “structural steady-state institutional system” and strengthen the capacity for sustained policy output and cross-cycle adjustments and the influence in international institutional arrangements, so as to provide stable institutional guarantee to withstand possible higher-intensity shocks in the future.